| 00:00:01 |
McArdle, John - Guest Host
ROBERT FELDMAN TO TALK ABOUT THE LATEST JOBS REPORT RELEASED YESTERDAY. WHAT DO THE NUMBERS TELL US ABOUT THE STATE OF OUR ECONOMY.
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| 00:00:15 |
Feldman, Robert - Economics Professor
GUEST: I THOUGHT IT MIGHT BE USEFUL TO HIGHLIGHT THE BROAD OUTLINE OF THE MACRO-ECONOMIC FRAMEWORK. I THINK IT WILL HELP TO GIVE SOME PERSPECTIVE TO ANSWERING...
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| 00:02:13 |
McArdle, John - Guest Host
THE FULL EMPLOYMENT RATE. THE LATEST NUMBERS HAVE THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE AT 8.3%. THAT IS DOWN FROM 8.5% IN DECEMBER. GUEST: SOMETIMES WE
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| 00:02:28 |
Feldman, Robert - Economics Professor
ARE BELOW THE TREND LINE OR FULL EMPLOYMENT GDP. THAT IS BECAUSE OF NEGATIVE SHOCKS TO DEMAND. WE HAVE THE FINANCIAL CRISIS WHERE CREDIT FROZE UP. BUSINESSES...
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| 00:04:01 |
McArdle, John - Guest Host
WITH GEORGETOWN ADJUTANT ECONOMIC PROFESSOR ROBERT FELDMAN. WE'RE GOING TO CHANGE THE LAW LINES A LITTLE BIT FOR THIS SEGMENT. IF YOUR EMPLOYER, GIVE...
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| 00:04:37 |
Feldman, Robert - Economics Professor
TO PREDICT. THIS IS NOT THE FIRST INSTANCE WHERE SURPRISES HAVE COME IN BETTER OR WORSE THAN EXPECTED. SOME CONTRIBUTING FACTORS MAY HAVE BEEN THAT...
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| 00:05:19 |
McArdle, John - Guest Host
CAN PLAY INTO THE JOBS REPORT? GUEST: IT CAN FOR
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| 00:05:24 |
Feldman, Robert - Economics Professor
THE FACTORS THAT ARE A WEATHER-SENSITIVE. IT TAKES INTO ACCOUNT CERTAIN SEASONAL ASPECTS. DURING THE WINTER, YOU WOULD EXPECT CONSTRUCTION TO BE NOT...
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| 00:05:51 |
McArdle, John - Guest Host
HOST: NOT EVERYBODY WAS SO EXCITED ABOUT THE NUMBERS. SOME ARE EXPRESSING CONCERN ABOUT THE NUMBERS. THIS IS CONGRESSMAN BRADY FROM TEXAS YESTERDAY....
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| 00:06:10 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
ARE ENCOURAGING. THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE GOING DOWN SLIGHTLY IS AS WELL. I HAVE TO CAUTION YOU. IT MASKS AN UNDERLYING WEAKNESS IN OUR ECONOMY. FEWER...
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| 00:06:44 |
McArdle, John - Guest Host
ON HIS CONCERNS? GUEST: IS SOME GOOD NEWS IN
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| 00:06:50 |
Feldman, Robert - Economics Professor
THE NUMBERS. THERE IS ALSO BAD NEWS FOR THE LABOR MARKET. THE GOOD NEWS IS EMPLOYMENT GREW MORE THAN EXPECTED. THE RISE IN EMPLOYMENT WAS BROAD-BASED....
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| 00:08:17 |
McArdle, John - Guest Host
IS ON THE LINE.
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| 00:08:20 |
CALLER, -
CALLER: I AND SELF-EMPLOYED. IF THE PRIVATE SECTOR IS LEFT TO GROW, IT WILL TAKE CARE OF THE PROBLEM. THE JOBS BILL WAS NEVER NEEDED. WE COULD KEEP GOING...
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| 00:08:42 |
Feldman, Robert - Economics Professor
A COUPLE OF POINTS. THIS IS WHY I TRIED TO WAIT OUT THE BROAD FRAMEWORK IN THE FIRST PLACE. WHEN THE ECONOMY IS AT FULL EMPLOYMENT AND THE GOVERNMENT...
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| 00:11:28 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
GRAPH SHOWS JOB GROWTH. IT ALSO HAS THE GOVERNMENT JOBS THAT YOU WERE TALKING ABOUT. THERE WERE 14,000 JOBS LOST IN THE GOVERNMENT SECTOR OVER THE PAST...
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| 00:11:51 |
CALLER, -
GENTLEMAN DESCRIBES THE PERFECT ECONOMIC THEORY OF BUSINESS. HOWEVER, ALAN GREENSPAN KEPT INTEREST RATES BELOW BECAUSE HE SAW NO WAGE PRESSURE. WAGE PRESSURES...
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| 00:12:50 |
McArdle, John - Guest Host
CONCERNS ABOUT PEOPLE COMING IN ACROSS THE BORDER ILLEGALLY TO TAKE JOBS. GUEST: I AM NOT A
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| 00:13:02 |
Feldman, Robert - Economics Professor
LAWYER OR MAKING JUDGMENTS ON THE LEGAL SIDE. IN TERMS OF THE ECONOMICS, THE EFFECT THAT WILL HAVE ON JOBS AND THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, THAT VERY MUCH...
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| 00:13:48 |
McArdle, John - Guest Host
THE LINE FROM TITUSVILLE, FLA. CALLER:
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| 00:13:54 |
CALLER, -
THIS STOPPED LOOKING FOR WORK NUMBER, I DO NOT KNOW WHERE THEY CAME UP WITH THAT. THAT MEANS YOU HAVE RUN OUT OF UNEMPLOYMENT. IT DOES NOT MEAN YOU...
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| 00:14:13 |
McArdle, John - Guest Host
CURRENTLY LOOKING FOR WORK? CALLER: I AM A
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| 00:14:18 |
CALLER, -
FULL-TIME STUDENT. THE INDUSTRY AND I AM IN -- THE INDUSTRY THAT I AM AND REQUIRES A DEGREE. I HAVE BEEN IN THE INDUSTRY FOR OVER 20 YEARS AND NEVER...
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| 00:14:42 |
McArdle, John - Guest Host
ENCOURAGE YOU?
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| 00:14:45 |
CALLER, -
CALLER: SMOKE AND MIRRORS. THE NUMBERS MEAN NOTHING. WHAT THE PROFESSORS HAVE BEEN TEACHING FOR 20 YEARS HAS NOT WORKED WELL BECAUSE OF THE SITUATION...
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| 00:15:10 |
McArdle, John - Guest Host
MODELS OR HIS CONCERNS ABOUT THE WAY THEY COME UP WITH THE NUMBERS. GUEST: WHEN WE
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| 00:15:16 |
Feldman, Robert - Economics Professor
TALK ABOUT DISCOURAGED WORKERS, THOSE ARE WORKERS WHO HAVE GIVEN UP LOOKING FOR JOBS. THOSE NUMBERS COME FROM SAMPLE SURVEY DATA WHERE PEOPLE ARE INTERVIEWED...
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| 00:17:01 |
McArdle, John - Guest Host
HAVE ABOUT 25 MINUTES LEFT WITH DR. ROBERT FELDMAN OF GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY. HE IS FORMALLY WITH THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. HE HELD POSITIONS WITH...
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| 00:17:39 |
CALLER, -
OFFER NO FULL-TIME EMPLOYMENT LIKE WALMART. EVERYBODY WORKS 16 HOURS EVERY TWO WEEKS. I WAS WONDERING HOW THOSE FIGURES FIGURE IN THE 19,000 JOBS. GUEST:
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| 00:17:56 |
Feldman, Robert - Economics Professor
PEOPLE WORKING PART-TIME ARE COUNTED AS EMPLOYED WHETHER THEY ARE WORKING FOUR HOURS A DAY, THEY ARE COUNTED AS EMPLOYED. WHEN YOU HAVE AN UNEMPLOYMENT...
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| 00:18:40 |
McArdle, John - Guest Host
HOST: ANOTHER HELPFUL CHARTS FROM YESTERDAY'S "WASHINGTON POST" SHOWS THE GRAPH OF THE U.S. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE FROM 2000 ON WORD -- ONWARD. THERE IS A...
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| 00:19:31 |
CALLER, -
IN THE HEALTH CARE INDUSTRY. I AM IN THE "BOX OFFICE" TYPE OF JOB. -- I AM IN THE "BOX OFFICE" TYPE OF JOB. HOW MANY OF THE JOBS ADDED WORK TEMPORARY...
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| 00:20:01 |
Feldman, Robert - Economics Professor
WHETHER PEOPLE ARE WORKING FULL-TIME OR PART-TIME, THEY ARE COUNTED AS EMPLOYED. I DO NOT HAVE A BREAKDOWN ON THE HEALTH INDUSTRY. I THINK EMPLOYMENT...
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| 00:20:19 |
McArdle, John - Guest Host
YOU SKEPTICAL OF THE NUMBERS? CALLER: YES,
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| 00:20:23 |
CALLER, -
I AM. IN MY AREA, WE WERE DOWNSIZED BECAUSE OF THE EXPENSIVE TECHNOLOGY PUT IN PLACE. AFTER THE EXPENSIVE IMPLEMENTATION, WE HIRED TEMPS TO DIG U OUT...
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| 00:21:08 |
Feldman, Robert - Economics Professor
NUMBERS ARE NOT NUMBERS. IN THE U.S. ECONOMY, THERE ARE ALWAYS JOBS BEING CREATED AND DESTROYED. -- THESE NUMBERS ARE NET NUMBERS. IF YOU SEE AN INCREASE...
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| 00:22:49 |
McArdle, John - Guest Host
THE BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS RELEASED NUMBERS. THE LEISURE AND HOSPITALITY INDUSTRY GAINED 40,000 JOBS IN INDUSTRY -- JANUARY. RETAIL TRADE GAINED 19,000...
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| 00:23:18 |
Feldman, Robert - Economics Professor
DO WITH TECHNOLOGY AND COMPUTERS. IT IS HARD TO READ MUCH INTO THE MONTH-TO-MONTH CHANGES BEGINNING TO LOOK AT TRENDS OVER LONG PERIODS OF TIME. YOU...
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| 00:24:03 |
McArdle, John - Guest Host
HAS STOPPED LOOKING FOR WORK FROM MICHIGAN. CALLER: A LOT OF PEOPLE JUST
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| 00:24:13 |
CALLER, -
DO NOT HAVE A JOB. A LOT ARE GOING TO SOCIAL SERVICES. THEY'RE PICKING UP AN INCOME OF SOMETHING TO PAY THEIR BILLS. I AM GOING TO RETIRE. I HAVE TO...
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| 00:24:47 |
McArdle, John - Guest Host
YOU START LOOKING AGAIN? CALLER: I GO DOWN
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| 00:24:51 |
CALLER, -
ALL THE TIME AND LOOK. I AM GOING TO ATLANTA TO SEE IF I CAN FIND SOMETHING DOWN THAT WAY. HOST: YOUR
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| 00:25:01 |
McArdle, John - Guest Host
THOUGHTS ON HIS COMMENTS? GUEST: IF YOU TAKE
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| 00:25:05 |
Feldman, Robert - Economics Professor
INTO ACCOUNT THOSE WORKING PART TIME WHO WOULD LIKE TO BE WORKING FULL- TIME AND GHOST DISCOURAGED WORKERS TO STOP LOOKING SO THEY ARE NOT COUNTED --...
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| 00:26:38 |
McArdle, John - Guest Host
FOR A JOB IN MANHATTAN. CALLER: YOU MENTIONED
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| 00:26:48 |
CALLER, -
WORKERS WHO HAVE BEEN OUT OF THE WORK PLACE FOR MORE THAN A YEAR OFF AND BEGIN TO LOSE THEIR SKILLS. IF I WERE A CONSTRUCTION WORKER , I WOULD NOT FORGET...
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| 00:27:50 |
Feldman, Robert - Economics Professor
CERTAINLY ARE FIRMS SITTING ON A LOT OF PROFITS. IF I GO BACK TO THE SURVEY EVIDENCE AND OTHER ANALYSIS, ONE OF THE MAJOR PROBLEMS FIRMS ARE HAVING IS...
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| 00:28:20 |
McArdle, John - Guest Host
EMPLOYED IN GREENBELT, MARYLAND. CALLER: WHY NOT JUST ACCEPT
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| 00:28:27 |
CALLER, -
THE NUMBERS THAT HAVE BEEN INCREASED AND THE EMPLOYMENT RATE? THERE ARE DISCUSSIONS ABOUT PEOPLE NOT LOOKING FOR WORK. THE EMPLOYMENT RATE IS INCREASING...
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| 00:29:23 |
Feldman, Robert - Economics Professor
ARE VARIOUS RISKS AND HEADWINDS THE ECONOMY FACES. THE UNITED STATES HAS TO BE CONCERNED WITH STABILITY IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND THE POSSIBLE IMPACT ON...
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| 00:31:29 |
McArdle, John - Guest Host
GO TO STEVEN, WHO IS STILL LOOKING, FROM SALZBURG, MARYLAND. CALLER: I RETIRED FROM THE
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| 00:31:40 |
CALLER, -
STATE OF MARYLAND IN MAY. I AM LOOKING BUT THERE'S NOTHING OUT THERE FOR THE MOST PART. I CALLED TO GIVE WARNING TO PEOPLE WHO ARE UNEMPLOYED. I WAS...
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| 00:32:15 |
Feldman, Robert - Economics Professor
FRUSTRATION I HAVE DEFINITELY HEARD. FOR WHATEVER REASON, EMPLOYERS MAY THINK THE SKILL MATCH IS NOT WHAT THEY WANT BECAUSE PEOPLE HAVE BEEN DETACHED...
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| 00:33:12 |
McArdle, John - Guest Host
THIS IS A QUESTION FROM TWITTER. I WANT TO GIVE YOU A CHANCE TO RESPOND. GUEST: I WOULD
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| 00:33:29 |
Feldman, Robert - Economics Professor
REFER THE READER TO THE LATEST PRESS RELEASE FROM THE BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS. THEY ARE THE ONES WHO PRODUCED THE NUMBERS ON THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE....
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| 00:35:13 |
McArdle, John - Guest Host
GET THROUGH A FEW MORE CALLS. DENISE IS EMPLOYED IN MISSOURI.
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| 00:35:25 |
CALLER, -
CALLER: I HAD BEEN UNEMPLOYED FOR TWO YEARS. I HAD BEEN WORKING IN THE FIELD FOR THE HEALTH CARE INDUSTRY IN CLAIMS. I HAD BEEN DOING THAT FOR 30 YEARS....
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| 00:36:36 |
Feldman, Robert - Economics Professor
CONGRATULATIONS YOU HAVE THE WHEREWITHAL TO GO BACK TO SKILL -- SCHOOL TO GET THE SKILLS HE NEEDED TO FIND A JOB. WHEN YOU WERE UNEMPLOYED, WHETHER OR...
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| 00:37:14 |
McArdle, John - Guest Host
LOOKING IN FLORIDA. CALLER: THE
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| 00:37:20 |
CALLER, -
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IN FLORIDA IS HOVERING AT AROUND 10%. I HAVE BEEN UNEMPLOYED FOR 10 MONTHS, ACTIVELY SEEKING WORK. I AM OVER 50 YEARS OLD. THIS IS THE...
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| 00:38:26 |
McArdle, John - Guest Host
WE HAVE LEFT, I WANTED TO GIVE YOU A CHANCE TO RESPOND. GUEST: I THINK
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| 00:38:32 |
Feldman, Robert - Economics Professor
THERE IS DEFINITELY FRUSTRATION OUT THERE WHEN DEMAND IS BELOW WHAT WOULD BE NECESSARY FOR THE ECONOMY TO GET FULLER EMPLOYMENT. THAT ESSENTIALLY MEANS...
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| 00:39:17 |
McArdle, John - Guest Host
US. WE WILL BE RIGHT BACK TO TAKE YOUR CALLS ON OPEN PHONES. [CAPTIONING PERFORMED BY NATIONAL CAPTIONING INSTITUTE] [CAPTIONS COPYRIGHT NATIONAL CABLE...
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NOTE: The transcript for this program was compiled from uncorrected Closed Captioning.