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Unidentified Speaker, -
AFTERNOON. GOOD AFTERNOON, EVERYONE. WELCOME TO THE AMERICAN ENTERPRISE DEBATE. MY NAME IS CARLEN AND I'M A SENIOR FELLOW. THE AMERICAN ENTERPRISE...
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| 00:06:12 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
EXCELLENT INTRODUCTION. AND SUMMARY OF MY BOOK. IT WAS ACTUALLY COMPLETELY ACCURATE WHICH IS NOT ALWAYS THE CASE WHEN PEOPLE SUMMARIZE OUR BOOK AND...
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| 00:12:18 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
YOUR QUESTIONS UP FRONT IF YOU HAVE ANY. >> THANK YOU VERY
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| 00:12:24 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
MUCH. I WANT TO SALUTE RUY TEIXEIRA FOR HIS COURAGE IN MAKING AN ARGUMENT FOR A PERMANENT DEMOCRATIC MAJORITY AFTER THE 2010 ELECTION. AND HIS BOOK...
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| 00:18:34 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
FOR VERY CONCISE, INTERESTING PRESENTATIONS. PLEASE SEND YOUR QUESTIONS TO THE FRONT OF THE ROOM IF YOU HAVE THEM. IF I DON'T GET ANY QUESTIONS TO...
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| 00:18:45 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
TO DO
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| 00:18:46 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
RESPONSIBLES? >> AFTER. >>
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| 00:18:59 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
OK. I'M SORRY, YOU BOTH HAVE RESPONSES. >>
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| 00:19:08 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
OK. THAT'S WHAT IT SAYS ON THE SCHEDULE. WE HAVE TO KEEP TO THE SCHEDULE AFTER ALL. THERE HAS TO BE SOME ORDER IN THIS COUNTRY AS IT SINKS SLOWLY...
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| 00:23:59 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
AT A COUPLE OF CATEGORIES THAT RUY AND I BOTH TALKED ABOUT HERE. HE TALKED ABOUT RACE OR NONWHITES. ONE THING THAT AS HE HE -- HAS DEFINITELY ADMITTED...
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| 00:29:21 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
THIS ORDER RIGHT AND TURN TO QUESTIONS FROM THE AUDIENCE. I WOULD LIKE TO BEGIN WITH A QUESTION FROM A FELLOW DEMOGRAPHER WHO RECENTLY SAID THAT DEMOCRACY...
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| 00:29:51 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
TO THAT. HE IS AN OLD FRIEND. RAY SAID OF THE CASE FOR DEMOCRACY BEING -- FOR DEMOGRAPHY BEING A DEMOCRATS FRIEND. BLOCK AMERICANS PROBABLY WILL NOT...
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| 00:30:39 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
BIGGEST. IF YOU LOOK AT OHIO, COLUMBUS IS GROWING FASTER. >> YOU HAVE MORE
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| 00:30:45 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
OF A WHITE- COLLAR LEVEL -- >>
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| 00:30:48 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
YES. YOU HAVE THE MINE ORGANIZATION -- THE MINORITIZATION. >> >> I DO THINK
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| 00:31:17 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
THAT IT IS A MINOR DISADVANTAGE FOR DEMOCRATS. THEY HAVE THE UNIVERSITY TOWNS. THEY HAVE THE CENTRAL CITY SINGLE AREA. GOOD TO NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND YOU...
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| 00:31:38 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
IT. IT NEVER KEEPS COMING. >> THERE IS
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| 00:31:41 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
AN ADVANTAGE THERE. BUT IN TERMS OF CARRYING THE WHOLE STATE OF VIRGINIA, YOU'RE LIMITED IN THE NUMBER OF DISTRICTS TO HAVE AND YOU ARE LIMITED TO SOME...
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| 00:32:02 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
DEMOCRACY IS PRETTY STRAIGHTFORWARD. LET ME SAY A WORD ABOUT GEOGRAPHY. I AM NOT SO SURE THAT I BY GEOGRAPHY IS ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE SCALE. AGAIN,...
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| 00:33:46 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
EXURBS. DEMOCRATS DID CARRY THOSE IN 2005. >> THEY DID
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| 00:33:54 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
BETTER OVER TIME. >> THEY MOVED
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| 00:33:56 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
TOWARD THE REPUBLICANS. IF YOU LOOK AT THE EXURBAN AREAS, THE METROPLEX, METRO ATLANTA, THEY TEND TO BE VERY HEAVILY REPUBLICAN IN SEVEN AREAS, EXCEPT...
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| 00:34:22 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
80% OF REPUBLICAN TO 60% REPUBLICAN, IT IS THE SAME THING AS GOING FROM 60% REPUBLICAN 26% DEMOCRAT. IT IS THE SAME NUMBER OF VOTES. >> A STRONGER NUMBER...
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| 00:34:36 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
2008
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| 00:34:37 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
RESULTS. >> LET'S MOVE ON. WHAT ARE THE INDICATORS THAT A REALIGNMENT, ALBEIT A GRADUAL ONE, IS AT HAND? ARE THEY MOSTLY DEMOGRAPHIC? >> CERTAINLY,
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| 00:34:51 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
THERE DEMOGRAPHIC. WHEN YOU LOOK AT AN ELECTION LIKE 2008 AND YOU SEE THE DISTRIBUTION OF VOTES, BOTH BY DEMOGRAPHIC GROUP AND BY STATE AND BY REGION...
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| 00:35:57 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
SOME INDICATORS OF GRADUAL CHANGE? >> RAY MADE REFERENCE
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| 00:36:06 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
TO ELECTORAL REALIGNMENTS. >> IS THAT NOT A FUN
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| 00:36:08 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
BOOK? >> HE MAKES
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| 00:36:14 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
THE ARGUMENT -- HE LOOKED AT THE IT ARGUMENTS THAT VARIOUS PEOPLE HAVE MADE THAT EVERYTHING CHANGED IN 1800, 1828, 1932. KEVIN PHILLIPS REFERENCE TO...
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| 00:37:42 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
THE DEMOCRATS CAN BE CHANGED? >> I CERTAINLY THINK
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| 00:37:48 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
THAT, OVER TIME, THAT IS QUITE POSSIBLE. I WOULD ARGUE PROBABLY. THESE TRENDS ARE BIG, LONG STANDING AND WILL CONTINUE FOR QUITE A LONG TIME. IT IS JUST...
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| 00:38:54 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
WOULD TAKE A DIFFERENT VIEW OF WHAT IS BEING MORE MODERATE MEANS. I WOULD NOT DISAGREE WITH THE ARGUMENT THAT ARGUMENTS -- THAT REPUBLICANS AND DEMOCRATS...
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| 00:41:25 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
DECADE, WILL THE STATUS OF TEXAS BE MAJORITY DEMOCRATIC OR REPUBLICAN? TEXAS IS MOVING IN THE DEMOCRATIC DIRECTION. AND A SECOND QUESTION -- TO THE...
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| 00:41:53 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
HAVE BEEN HEARING PREDICTIONS THAT TEXAS -- IF YOU LOOK AT "SOUTHERN POLITICS," TEXAS WOULD HAVE WORKING-CLASS WHITES, BLACKS, AND LATINOS. IT HAS NOT...
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| 00:42:42 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
TEXAS, WILL TEXAS THE BLUE AT THE END OF THIS DECADE? I STILL TEND TO DOUBT THAT. I THINK IT WILL BE MORE COMPETITIVE BECAUSE OF THE POPULATION CHANGED...
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| 00:44:21 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
ANGELICO HISPANICS ARE MORE DEMOCRATIC THAN CATHOLIC HISPANICS. >> THIS OUTAGE WAS ORIGINALLY
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| 00:44:27 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
A TRIP DID TO EITHER ISRAELI OR CHURCHILL. IF YOU'RE NOT A CONSERVATIVE AT 40, YOU HAVE NO HEAD. OUR BABY BOOMERS BECOMING THEIR PARENTS? ARE THEY...
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| 00:44:45 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
BOOMERS VOTED 50/54 NIXON-MCGOVERN. IF YOU LOOK AT THE DID A POLL FROM 2008, A BIG DEMOCRATIC YEAR, THAT SAME AGE GROUP WAS GOING 50/49 FOR REPUBLICANS....
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| 00:45:53 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
HAVE NEVER BEEN AS PRO-DEMOCRATIC OR LIBERAL AS THEY ARE TODAY. BABY BOOMERS, IT IS IMPORTANT TO DIFFERENTIATE BETWEEN EARLY AND LATE BABY BOOMERS. EARLY...
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| 00:47:13 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
ARE THE FIRST GENERATION WHERE THE COLLEGE PEOPLE HAVE BEEN MORE DEMOCRATIC THAN THEIR ELDERS. THE COLLEGE/G I GENERATION. NON-COLLEGE BOOMERS HAVE BEEN...
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| 00:47:34 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
RIGHT. I WOULD HAVE TO SIT DOWN AND MESS AROUND WITH THE DATA, BUT THAT SOUNDS RIGHT. >> WILL NOT DEMOCRATS
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| 00:47:40 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
LOSE GROUND DEMOCRATS DO NOT GET MORE FOLKS OUT THERE DEFENDING THEIR PRESIDENT? ONLY THE PRESIDENT IS DEFENDING HIS POLICIES. >> THAT IS A
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| 00:47:52 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
QUESTION ABOUT WHAT OBAMA SHOULD DO OR DISPOSED PEOPLE? MAYBE THIS IS A QUESTION INDIRECTLY OF HOW WEATHER PEOPLE ON THE LEFT ARE HARASSING HIM AS MUCH....
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| 00:48:42 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
GREATER TURNOUT IN YOUR MAJORITY RULE PIECES? >> THE DAVID MAYHEW BOOK
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| 00:48:48 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
HAS A WHOLE SECTION WHERE HE TRIES TO DEMOLISH THE WHOLE CONCEPT THAT HIGH TURNOUT IS NECESSARILY ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT HAVE YOU, REALIGNMENT AND SO ON....
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| 00:49:42 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
HIGH TURNOUT ERA. THE BIGGEST INCREASE WAS BETWEEN 2000-2004. TURNOUT WAS 16% AND THAT WAS A REPUBLICAN YEAR. IT DOES NOT NECESSARILY FAVOR ONE PARTY...
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| 00:50:16 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
MEAN BY A POLITICAL CENTER? MICHAEL WOULD ARGUE THAT THERE IS A CENTER-RIGHT COALITION IN THIS COUNTRY THAT SHOULD BE DOMINANT. I WOULD ARGUE THAT THERE...
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| 00:51:41 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
DEMOCRATS AND REPUBLICANS GOT TOGETHER FOR A NON-ADULT BEVERAGE AT THE END OF THE DAY, IT IS LIKE CHASING A MIRAGE. IN THE 1960'S, WE HAVE RIGHTS IN...
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| 00:52:36 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
THERE ARE MANY YOUNG PEOPLE IN THE AUDIENCE. HOW MUCH OF A FACTOR IS THE ABSENCE OF A CONSERVATIVE VERSION OF JAVA STORED OR STEVEN COLBERT IN SHOWING...
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| 00:53:02 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
FOUND STEVEN COLBERT FUNNY. I CANNOT TELL YOU. JOHN STEWART IS AT LEAST SOMETIMES ENABLE OPPORTUNITY SATIRIST. THAT IS MY CONTRIBUTION. -- AN EQUAL OPPORTUNITY...
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| 00:53:20 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
THE DEMOCRAT, -- WHY ARE THERE NOT REPUBLICAN EQUIVALENTS? I THINK IT IS PARTLY BECAUSE THE AMBIANCE OF THAT KIND OF HUMOR AND THAT WAY OF TALKING ABOUT...
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| 00:53:41 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
WHAT ABOUT THE SIMPSONS? [LAUGHTER] >> DO THEY NOT TAKE
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| 00:53:47 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
GONE LIBERAL AND CONSERVATIVE ISSUES? >> THEY ARE MORE
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| 00:53:54 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
LIBERAL, TAKING ON THE COMEDY CENTRAL TEXT OF. >> WE WILL NOW TAKE ON
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| 00:53:59 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
CLOSING STATEMENTS. >> WE COVERED A LOT OF GROUND
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| 00:54:08 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
IN THIS DEBATE. IT HAS BEEN JOLLY FINE. I HOPE I CONVINCED YOU ARE MADE TO CONSIDER THE IDEA THAT WE DO HAVE A DEMOGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN LEAN IN THE...
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| 00:59:43 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
MUCH. I THINK THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE IN THESE ISSUES IS NOT SO MUCH THE DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS, BUT ON THE LONG TERM LIKELY RESPONSE OF VOTERS TO DIFFERENT...
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| 01:04:50 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
OF YOU FOR COMING. I WANT TO THANK YOU FOR EXCELLENT PRESENTATIONS. IF YOU MISSED SOME OF THE FINER POINTS OF THIS DISCUSSION, YOU CAN TUNE IN AGAIN...
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NOTE: The transcript for this program was compiled from uncorrected Closed Captioning.